Cartwright, N., Charlton, L., Juden, M., Munslow, T. & Williams, R.B. 2020. Making predictions of programme success more reliable. CEDIL Methods Working Paper. Oxford: CEDIL
Cartwright, N. 2020. Using middle-level theory to improve programme and evaluation design. CEDIL Methods Brief. Oxford: CEDIL
Making predictions of programme success more reliable
Programme of work
Enhancing evidence transferability
This paper develops an approach to middle-range theory named causal process tracing theory of change. It will show how this approach can aid in making more reliable local predictions of development interventions.
The paper will outline the steps for building theories of change informed by concepts of middle-range theory.
This paper will provide a new method for the transferability of theories of change across settings. The greater use of middle-range theory in evaluation has the potential to increase the transferability of evaluation findings and improve the design of future programmes and evaluations.