Making predictions of programme success more reliable

Programme of work

Enhancing evidence transferability

Principal investigator(s)

Nancy Cartwright

Host institution

Durham University

Project type

Conceptual paper


Not applicable

Research question

This paper develops an approach to middle-range theory named causal process tracing theory of change. It will show how this approach can aid in making more reliable local predictions of development interventions.

Research design

The paper will outline the steps for building theories of change informed by concepts of middle-range theory.

Data source

Not applicable

Policy relevance

This paper will provide a new method for the transferability of theories of change across settings. The greater use of middle-range theory in evaluation has the potential to increase the transferability of evaluation findings and improve the design of future programmes and evaluations.

Project Outputs

Cartwright, N., Charlton, L., Juden, M., Munslow, T. & Williams, R.B. 2020. Making  predictions of programme success more reliable. CEDIL Methods Working Paper. Oxford: CEDIL

Cartwright, N. 2020. Using middle-level theory to improve programme and evaluation design. CEDIL Methods Brief. Oxford: CEDIL