Making predictions of programme success more reliable

Methods Working Paper 1

Nancy Cartwright, Lucy Charlton, Matt Juden, Tamlyn Munslow and Richard Beadon Williams

This paper provides an account of how a ‘causal–process–tracing theory of change’ can be very helpful for programme prediction, planning and evaluation. The paper uses case studies as running examples to illustrate how this type of detailed theory of change would be built.

Making predictions of programme success more reliable

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Making predictions of programme success more reliable

Making predictions of programme success more reliable