CEDIL Methods Working Papers
The CEDIL Methods Working Paper Series offers innovative research methods to develop impact evaluation and evidence synthesis work in low- and middle-income countries. The papers in this series also advance the understanding of how research methods and theoretical frameworks can be applied for addressing enduring and complex development challenges in low- and middle-income countries.
Making predictions of programme success more reliable
Nancy Cartwright, Lucy Charlton, Matt Juden, Tamlyn Munslow and
Richard Beadon Williams
This paper provides an account of how a ‘causal–process–tracing theory of change’ can be very helpful for programme prediction, planning and evaluation. The paper uses case studies as running examples to illustrate how this type of detailed theory of change would be built. Download paper.