Putting the theory of change to work: Process-Outcome Integration with Theory

Programme of work

Enhancing evidence transferability

Principal investigator(s)

Calum Davey

Host institution

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)

Other institutions

University KwaZulu-Natal
University College London
Columbia University
University British Columbia


January 2020 to December 2022

Project type

Secondary data analysis


Uganda, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan

Research question

The project seeks to improve methods to better integrate evidence related to the process and outcomes of interventions. It will develop a novel interdisciplinary method, Process-Outcome Integration with Theory (POInT).

Research design

  1. The study will use case studies to apply POInT to make inferences about the theory of change, describing how interventions work and in which contexts. POInT employs a Bayesian framework to generate a formal, systematic method for assessing the validity of theories of change that can draw on various types of evidence. The case studies will cover disability-inclusive poverty graduation, disability-inclusive youth training and CEDIL-funded evaluations. The outputs will be more accurate and precise estimates of average intervention effects, learning about mechanisms using all of the data and improved generalisable knowledge.

Data source

Work with other LSHTM Department for International Development-funded teams for workshops, workshops with implementers and evaluators from universities.

Policy relevance

This project will help evaluations glean value from evaluations, and pro-duce evidence that better informs policy. Broader learning will inform evaluation practice in the sector.